Vinny’s Blog

As mentioned in one of my earlier post that we will look into this ‘Green Shoots’ thingy well here I am on this highly debated ‘green shoots’ issue is it there OR not ?

First of all what is greenshoot and what does it mean ? well, it may mean many things but one thing that it does mean for many is that things are starting to get better and that is an encouraging sign, (..and then the speculation is..) if they continue on this path to be better then in the end we can declare victory.

Anyway…first part that things are starting to get better that it self is a flawed understanding and flawed advertising things are not getting better but the pace at which bad things were happening is slowing down, not sure how this can be good news…because the reality is that bad things are still happening…happening at a lesser pace but none the less happening…and that’s bad news period no matter how you see it.

No doubt, Situation will change, when good things will start to happen…may be at a slower pace..but none the less ‘good things’. They will be good things.

The course hasn’t reversed yet. Second part (..speculation about trend…) still stands some economist/investors see this as trend reversal others say don’t count on it. Trends can change their direction anytime.

So where are the green shoots ? why suddenly there is buzz in the media that things are getting better or going to get better ?

Just about 30-60 days ago we were shit scared fearing deflation, world financial system meltdown, biggest banks failing…financial armageddon …now we are seeing green shoots. If you’re not seeing it and I am definitely not seeing here is why……if there are green shoots I don’t need to be told that they are there I will see them because my tax bills would be falling, wages would be rising, unemployment would be running low, gas prices would be falling, more people would be taking vacations, restaurants would be full, airlines would be doing better, most of all people would be actually talking about where the jobs are. And that is how I will (..a normal person) would know there are greens hoots. I don’t need to be told by the media over and over again and again that there are green shoots.
But hey !  that’s me…and may be it’s you. But than again there are enough god damn idiots out there, who will start to feel better just because they read in the news about it. Not only that…they might even go out and spend the heck out of their capacity. All because 6 months from now things will get better. And at least in my opinion that’s exactly what media is trying to achieve. Put a carrot in front of the donkey and let the donkey run.

US consumer confidence rose in June to its highest level in nine months as a recent stock market rally and signs of economic stability have begun to peel away some of gloom cast by the recession.

–Now watch this..

Economists: U.S. unemployment likely to rise

by Matthew Rusling

WASHINGTON, June 12 (Xinhua) — The U.S. unemployment rate has hit its highest point in a quarter century, and economists still expect the numbers to climb even higher.

“I would expect the unemployment rate to rise into the middle of 2010,” Beach said.

Every other place on planet if people are loosing their jobs they will conserve and spend less confidence would be low common sense dictates that..not in America. Both articles were published on June-12th check that.

And that’s pretty much how I see it, I see this as a desperate effort to encourage people all over the world to believe in this. Yet another miracle that America has pulled off. They have averted the crisis, one of the biggest, once in life time, once in a century crisis…and just like that they have fixed it. They didn’t see it coming (..so what). They could not control it (..so what). They did not understand it (..so what)..there are trillions of derivative that they have no knowledge and control on (..so what)…they have fixed the crisis and fixed it so well that good times will just roll in within 6 months.

This is simply marvelous.

I will cover following sectors individually each to see if there are green shoot..scroll down for links..

1. Banking. ( Published 06/11/09)
2. FDIC      ( Published 06/11/09)
3. Commercial Mortgage ( Published 06/11/09)
4. Transport (Airline/Trucking/Rail) (Published 06/11/09)

5. Manufacturing (….to be published…)
6. Bonds/Currency (….to be published…)
7. Inflation (….to be published…)
8. Housing (….to be published…)
9. Pensions (….to be published…)
10. States/Cities/Towns in America (….to be published…)
11. Debt…( oh! boy) (….to be published…)
12 Unemployment (….to be published…)
14 Insurance (….to be published…)

Why so much propaganda about Green shoot is required you may question ?

Well in my understanding since Wall Street has cheated everybody on the planet from east to west all countries. By selling phony investments consisting sub-prime, alt-a, CDOs, CLOs, SIVs to name a few and then sold bonds from Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac (…of course supported by government, and we all know how those two companies are doing.) Then sold Shares of major Wall Street Banks Citi, Chase, Bank of America on artificially inflated prices..we all know how they are doing…and the list goes on. Madoff, Enron, Worldcom….on and on…!! while at it let us not forget AIG…Leahman, Bear, Wamu…just keep adding…oh ya! then again sold credit card securitization, commercial market securitization…just keep adding…..countrywide..go on…

Basically how to take shit, sprinkle it with caviar and present it to others for breakfast that technique is mastered very well by Wall Street bankers. Now trick here is to have investors focused on sprinkles of caviar but not the shit (..main ingredient). As long as people buy shit but pay the price of caviar all is well on wall street.

I am sure by now many Americans are thinking I am not American at all…such bad words I can’t be an American. And that is one other thing about Americans they must be lied to and constantly, about how good the things are and how good they can be otherwise the bubble they live in will burst and that’s bad because then they will have to wake up into an actual life, actual economy like the rest of the planet does. That’s too bad…all those fairy tale dreams they would all be gone.

So my apology if you are hurt with the wordings here and if you are so hurt, then you must stop reading right about now. You should go back to your sleep and enjoy your fairytale dreams. however, before you go let me tell you that my language here is a derivative of someone’s comments who most Americans consider American.

“Many of the crooks look like crooks,” said Mr Buffett. “Wall Street loves them as long as they are pushing out securities.” Mr Buffett, known affectionately as the Sage of Omaha, said a good way to spot possible frauds was to keep a close eye on those companies that reported results using Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation).

Mr Munger, 78, also sounded a warning over companies involved in derivatives, saying. “To say derivative accounting in America is in the sewer is an insult to sewage,” he fumed.

Now caviar does not flow in Sewage….shit does. Hence the word I chose. They were more polite in mentioning it I am not that is the only difference.

If you’re still hurting, may be you should tell Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffet too that they are not Americans either.

If you did click on that link above you could say ‘but that article is from 2002′. That’s the point, I posted it here to make you realize how deep their understanding of this problem is, they saw this coming way back in 2002….and now here is the latest….from May-4th-2009..let us see if their understanding about the ’sewage’ has changed.

Munger and Berkshire Chairman Warren Buffett spoke yesterday at a press conference one day after the Omaha, Nebraska-based firm’s annual shareholder meeting at the city’s Qwest Center. Excerpts from the press conference are below.

May 4 (Bloomberg) Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffet….

“You could argue that the people who created the securities were either delusional or flim-flam artists.”

“They were going to take a lot of sewage and mix it up in a different way and said it’s not sewage any more. And of course the laws of nature are such that it keeps its sewage-like qualities.”

Damn it ! here they go again. Once again they mentioned sewage/the law of nature…..yet again after 6 years. Looks like nothing has changed in their mind.

Anyway back to our analysis green shoots or ‘Shit’… sorry for that word again. I’ll be more careful going forward…

Anyway, unless we assume that foreigners are completely stupid and definitely idiots who just can’t differentiate between ‘that’ and the caviar…then chances are that they are actually not that big an idiot and have discovered that America cannot be trusted with their money. They will give in their money and instaed of ‘Caviar’ they will get ‘that’.

Then green shoots are suddenly more important then ever before. You see, they must be shown green shoots given some hope otherwise they will walk away with their money, then what will we do, it’s their money we play with.  Duh !!

Chinese our biggest creditors have finally realized, Japan has realized. Hedge funds, retirement funds who bought Wall St. Securities have realized taste of ‘that’ and if they must be kept in the game (….after all it’s their money  we used ) …they must be shown those GREENSHOOTS. That’s the only way the game can go on. And so the greenshoots…more greenshoots….the propaganda…

Term ‘Greenshoot’ is perfect as well. How to get a good green crop ? use some good fertilizer..we have plenty of ‘that’.

And folks you don’t have to agree with me there is a comment section here so if you hold a different opinion then fill out the form. Better still write up something and send it to me…I will publish it not as your comment but an article. It will only provide some, contrast some healthy debate. Which I think is very good for the readers. So far this blog has been going in one direction only…and that’s not good, I will like to see some good, cheering news published here, but only if it’s real not if it’s made to look real.

Anyway, following (scroll down if you wish) are the sectors I would cover giving references from articles published in major news papers (..as always) from around the world often written by major economist, writers, good journalists and importantly articles of most current dates that reflect recent trends …the sectors are as follows.

When I publish articles for these sectors a link will appear with date on which the article has been published else it will say to be published so keep watching this page..it will be updated until all sectors are complete.

Since we don’t live in isolated world..we will also look at few other countries to see if the trend ( down trend has reversed there…) may be they will provide a clue…in that category we will look at most industrialized countries with developed economy…such as Germany and Japan. We will also look at UK because of similarities of it’s economy with ours and again UK also is a developed country.

Did I miss anything ? is there any other sector you would like me to cover ? please mention it. This is going to be one of my largest post so not everything would be published at once. I will publish few now and few later but I would cover all these sectors. So, let us get started…

1. Banking. ( Published 06/11/09)
2. FDIC      ( Published 06/11/09)
3. Commercial Mortgage ( Published 06/11/09)
4. Transport (Airline/Trucking/Rail) (Published 06/11/09)

As of 07/12/09 coverage on following sectors #5 to #9 have been published.

click here

5. Manufacturing (….published 07/12/09…)
6. Bonds/Currency (….published 07/12/09.…)
7. Inflation (….published 07/12/09...)
8. Housing (….published 07/12/09.…)
9. Pensions (….published 07/12/09...)
10. States/Cities/Towns in America (….to be published…)
11. Debt…( oh! boy) (….to be published…)
12 Unemployment (….to be published…)
14 Insurance (….to be published…)

Disclaimer¹

1. Thankyou! [↩]