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-Next shoe to drop commercial realestate

January 14th, 2009 · No Comments

You read state of the states in an earlier post if not please feel free to browse through that post click here to open it. Previous article indicates states have budget gaps…..this one will take you in little more details of the states’ problems that are still waiting to unfold.

One thing that is interesting in any situation is a counter trend when there is a trend in place there is a counter trend somewhere that’s running in opposite direction. In 2009 I have decided to include this counter trend as positive news where ever possible.

For example….

….Broughton said that while both UPS and FedEx stand to gain as DHL pulls back its U.S. service offering, FedEx will likely have the upper hand in gaining a broader share of the market in both domestic ground and air express shipments. reference1

similarly…..if Office Depot is closing I am sure will push some business towards Staples….so on and so forth…

Anyway let us get past those counter trends and previous post and try to look in even greater detail what awaits for these states/cities/towns in coming months. Once again we might have to look at news from past year to see what might be shaping up as a potential problem in 2009…..there is lot of data that I collected and is presented here but - the actual message is towards the end of this post.

CompUSA To Close All Stores
Consumer Electronics Retailer Is Sold; Will Shutter After Holiday Sales
DALLAS, Dec. 7, 2007
CompUSA operates 103 stores, which plan to run store-closing sales during the holidays.

Sharper Image wants to close 96 stores
Victoria Colliver, Chronicle Staff Writer
Saturday, March 8, 2008


Disney to shutter 98 stores; Home Depot closing 15
Updated 5/1/2008 10:16 PM

In Venti Retreat, 600 Starbucks to Close
Patrons sit inside a Starbucks store in downtown Boston Tuesday, July 1, 2008. Starbucks Corp. said Tuesday it will close 600 stores in the United States in the next year and cut back the number of new stores it had planned to open. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola) (Elise Amendola - AP)
Wednesday, July 2, 2008

UPDATE 1-Linens ‘n Things store closings to begin Friday
NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Going-out-of business sales at Linens ‘n Things stores will begin on Friday after the bankrupt home goods retailer failed to find a buyer to keep the chain running.

Mervyns to close its doors after holiday sales
Victoria Colliver, Chronicle Staff Writer
Saturday, October 18, 2008
The ailing retailer, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in July and planned to close 26 stores, said Friday that it now plans to liquidate its remaining 149 locations and shutter the business after the holiday season.

Shoe Pavilion going out of business
By Sue Chang
Last update: 5:02 p.m. EDT Oct. 20, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Shoe Pavilion Inc. said late Monday it will close all of its 64 stores after 29 years in business. Shoe Pavilion was once the largest independent discount footwear retailer on the West Coast.

Sears to close 12 underperforming stores outside Illinois
By Sandra M Jones
October 21, 2008

Circuit City to close 155 stores
November 3, 2008 7:08 AM PST
Circuit City Stores announced Monday it plans to close 155 stores and lay off 17 percent of its workforce in the U.S., as it aims to restructure its business amid a tightening credit market and downturn in business.

Tweeter to shutter remaining stores
By Jenn Abelson
Globe Staff / November 4, 2008

Saks to close its Club Libby Lu stores, cut staff
Wed Nov 5, 2008 10:09am EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Luxury department store Saks Inc (SKS.N) on Wednesday said it was discontinuing its unprofitable Club Libby Lu stores and firing the specialty chain’s 1,700 employees.

Steve & Barry’s to Close All Remaining 173 Stores in U.S.
Closures will Afford Holiday Shoppers Heavy Discounts on High-Quality Casual Apparel
Last update: 7:00 p.m. EST Nov. 25, 2008

Office Depot will close 112 stores
Wednesday December 10, 9:03 am ET
Office Depot to close 112 underperforming stores in 3 months in cost-saving move

KB Toys files for bankruptcy
December 12, 2008 3:17 AM ET
NEW YORK/HONG KONG (Reuters) - KB Toys Inc, one of the largest U.S. toy retailers, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday, with a plan to close all its stores and begin liquidation sales in the middle of the holiday season.

Retailers such as Ann Taylor, Sears and Talbots face store closings, bankruptcies, takeovers in 2009
Monday, December 29th 2008, 9:57 AM
The Ann Taylor store at the South Street Seaport. Erwitt/News
This holiday season hit retailers hard. As a result, many are facing mass store closings and bankruptcies.

–here is yet another summary of stores closing across the country……..
# Ann Taylor (117)
# Movie Gallery (378)
# Sprint/Nextel (125)
# Ethan Allen (12)
# Dell (140)
# Friedmans (120)
# Pier 1 (25)
# Sigrid Olsen (54)
# Talbots Kids/Mens (78)
# Home Depot (15)
# Eddie Bauer (29)
# GAP (85)
# Footlocker (140)
# Bombay (all 384 stores)
# Disney (98)
# Macy’s (11)
# JC Penney (scaling back)
# Loews (scaling back)
# Sharper Image (184)
# Wilson Leather (160)
# Pep Boys (31)
# Pacific Sunwear / PacSun (154 Demo stores)
# Zales (105)
# Cache (20)
# Lane Bryant (40)
# KB Toys (356)
# Dillards (26)
# Fashion Bug (100)
# CompUSA (all stores)
# Linens ‘N Things (all 371 stores)
# Mervyn’s (all 149 stores)
# Club Libby Lu (Saks owned) (all 78 stores)
# Steve & Barry’s (all 173 stores)
# Sergio Rossi (all standalone US stores)
# Office Depot (126 stores)
# Rite Aid (181 stores)
http://www.nowpublic.com/style/list-retail-store-closings-us

Total as per this list comes to around 4065 stores…and these are that we know of and account for some family own small stores/restaurants/Jewelers/ convenient/shop that close at some small corner in some communities and towns we don’t even know about them.

But is the problem limited to just the retailers…….??

U.S. car sales in September were the worst since 1993
Updated 10/2/2008 3:09 AM

The National Automobile Dealers Association estimates 700 new-car dealerships will close this year, up from 430 last year - OCTOBER 28, 2008

U.S. dealership closures to increase into ‘09: study
Wed Oct 1, 2008 5:54pm EDT
DETROIT (Reuters) - The number of U.S. car dealerships closing is expected to increase into 2009 with as many as 3,800 dealerships at risk of closure because of dwindling sales and tighter credit, according to a newly released study by Grant Thornton LLP on Wednesday.

What about office space ?

DHL to cut 9,500 jobs and close US service centers
Monday November 10, 2:27 pm ET
By Harry R. Weber and Samantha Bomkamp, AP Business Writers

Manhattan Office Vacancy Rises to Highest Since 2004 (Update1)
By David M. Levitt
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — Manhattan office vacancies rose to 7.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the highest since 2004, as the recession led companies to give up space, brokerage CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. said in a report.

So this is all about closing stores and dealerships and offices….question is when these retail spaces become available in those states are new businesses taking over those available commercial space ?

Did you see new shops opening up in 2008 to replace empty retail commercial business space ? Or do you expect new shops to open up in 2009 on those vacant spots ?

–well, if you don’t think that way let me tell you you’re not alone…

Some Fear Commercial Property Loans Will Be Next Stage in Downturn
As the value of home mortgages crumbles by the day, Wall Street has hoped that commercial real estate loans would stay clear of the storm.

Commercial Loan Defaults May Triple as Rental Income Declines
By Hui-yong Yu
Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) — U.S. commercial properties at risk of default could triple if rental income from office,
retail and apartment buildings drops by even 5 percent, a likely possibility given the recession, according to
research by New York-based real estate analysts at Reis Inc.


–And this is what you should really be thinking about…….if subprime could do this much damage is commercial real estate cheaper than housing ? can it do any damage ? What kind of damage can it do ? Now………keep thinking……who knows you might have an answer……….

– Me, I already have an answer, only waiting to get a confirmation…………in 2009.


[views and opinions expressed here are mine and you need not agree with them. You should not make any financial decisions or any other decision based upon material you read on this website. For that you must contact an expert in the relevant area of your need.]
  1. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081110/eu_germany_deutsche_post.html ! []

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