Vinny’s Blog

You read earlier how we got here meaning how we got into this mess. Then you read what this mess might do to USD, future of USD which does not look good, I had been expecting this (lower USD ) for  some time now and finally looks like USD has started to loose it’s luster. I think I have been very open in saying in the past that I don’t believe in strong USD. All fundamentals are simply wrong and not just wrong but they are dead against a strong USD…..

Here is a more certain fundamental way to confirm what I expected. If you follow even a little bit of new you know that Feds have cut the interest rates and now we are near 0 (zero) interest rate. Through out 2008 I had been reading a lot of news, specially in the beginning of the year that - Neah! We can’t have Japanese style conditions here in the US. We are USA and blah and blah and blah…

………and blah, blah it was because here we are with near 0% interest rates. First hint came from the feds back in November.

Fed hints at rate cut, lowers forecast
The Fed reduces its GDP projection, signals additional interest rate cuts and sees unemployment over 7% next year.
Last Updated: November 19, 2008: 3:18 PM ET
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sharply lowered its projections for economic activity this year and next, and signaled that additional interest rate reductions may be needed to help combat the worst financial crisis to jolt the country in more than a half-century.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/19/news/economy/fed_economy.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008111915

And soon….on December 16th.

Fed slashes key rate to near zero
Ben Bernanke & Co. cite the weakness in the economy and the reduced inflation threat as justification to cut rates to a record low range of 0% to 0.25%.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/economy/fed_decision/?postversion=2008121615

So are we different than Japan ?

‘Bernanke-san’ Signals Policy Shift, Evoking Japan Comparison
Bernanke yesterday said he may use less conventional policies, such as buying Treasury securities, to revive the economy, because his room to lower the main U.S. rate from the current 1 percent level is “obviously limited.” Even so, reducing the rate is “certainly feasible,” he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aziecc.MkO28&refer=home

And watch the date on this on 16th they cut the interest rate and on 17th…….

Dollar falls against yen, euro
Japanese currency surges to 13-year high against greenback following U.S. central bank slashing rates.
By Lara Moscrip, CNNMoney.com contributing writer
Last Updated: December 17, 2008: 6:02 PM ET
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/17/markets/dollar/index.htm?postversion=2008121718

I have only included reference to Euro and Japanese Yen here. Because after USD these are the only 2 remaining strong currencies in the world. Other currencies don’t matter much.

I always assumed that USD cannot and should not be strong. Here is what is wrong for USD to be strong, fundamentals are exactly opposite……….

New Unemployment Claims Reach 26-Year High

Last Edited: Thursday, 11 Dec 2008, 8:44 AM EST Created: Thursday, 11 Dec 2008, 8:44 AM EST
The Labor Department says initial applications for jobless benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 573,000, from an upwardly revised figure of 515,000 in the previous week. That was far more than the 525,000 claims Wall Street economists expected.
http://www.myfoxny.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=8049957&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.1.1

250,000 of those jobs were eliminated only in November.
Private sector sheds 250,000 jobs in November
Wednesday December 3, 8:42 am ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private employers cut 250,000 jobs in November, the most in seven years, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081203/business_us_usa_economy_employment_adp.html

And here is December’s job losses…….month is not over yet.

December job cuts exceed 100k
Job cuts continue to mount in December as recession deepens.
By Jessica Dickler, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: December 12, 2008: 12:46 PM ET
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/12/news/economy/job_cuts/index.htm?postversion=2008121212

You see the longer USD remains strong, longer we are going to experience this job loss problem. When we start to manufacture cars with labor at 60-80 USD per hour, they become un-affordable for sale in any other country but here. And those big 3 are if not the biggest, definitely one of the biggest employers in the country. Let me prove my point………..watch the date on this article, this is when these companies were knocking doors in Washington asking for money to keep them afloat here in US. Making cars here and selling them in China just won’t do it……(thanks strong USD).

Troubled automaker GM opens new plant in China
Beijing (AFP) Dec 17, 2008
http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Troubled_automaker_GM_opens_new_plant_in_China_999.html

We can’t export to them despite of the fact that there is a demand. Watch the date on this article again.

China’s vehicle imports rise 40% in first 10 months
By Yu Hongyan (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-12-04 19:31
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-12/04/content_7272628.htm

And mind you our exports are decreasing at a faster pace and watch the date on this as well.

Trade Deficit in U.S. Widens as Exports Decrease (Update1)
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in October as faltering global demand led to a third consecutive drop in exports, signaling the American economy is sinking even faster than previously estimated.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYMRfTaPRLCU&refer=home

–Let us look at few other examples service industry based.
Strong dollar hurts Oracle earnings
Second quarter sales at the software powerhouse fall short of Wall Street expectations.
By Emily Maltby, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: December 18, 2008: 7:14 PM ET
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/18/technology/Oracle_earnings/index.htm?postversion=2008121819

– And then we wonder why these software companies are moving jobs to India. (Well, thanks to strong dollar again).

Consumer spending, strong dollar hurt Costco in 1Q
Thursday December 11, 7:35 pm ET
By Sarah Skidmore, Associated Press Retail Writer

Costco 1st-qtr results nearly flat, hurt by weak consumer spending, stronger dollar
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081211/earns_costco_wholesale.html?.v=5

US cattle, hogs slump as global economies struggle
11.06.08, 4:36 PM ET
Falling stock and commodity markets and a rising dollar pressured the livestock markets. A strong dollar hurts exports because it lessens the buying power of foreign currencies.
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/11/06/2008-11-06T213638Z_01_N06521129_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-LIVESTOCK.html

Will you really blame Costco if they shut down stores and laid off employees ? Depends how you look at stuff, it’s not Costco’s fault, it’s not Oracle’s fault if they did. They are in business, in business of making money and to keep themselves profitable they will have to either ship jobs overseas or layoff employees or both here in US to support their own survival and it’s because of USD, ya ! Strong USD.

And this is why I knew that strong USD was just a joke……..and the longer it remains that way the longer this pain is going to last. You want see what more in damages this strong USD has done. Remember that job loss report on the top of this article, November 250,000, Dec 100k…well those job losses come back to haunt again….not only these citizens stop paying taxes but they start to draw on un-employment claims………

States running out of money in jobless funds
Updated 9/9/2008 8:40 AM
By Dennis Cauchon, USA TODAY
The sharp rise in joblessness is draining unemployment insurance trust funds in many hard-hit states, setting the stage for a federal bailout to keep the funds solvent.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2008-09-08-unemployment_N.htm

Some state unemployment funds drying up
(CNN) — The demand for unemployment benefits across the country has put a strain on state unemployment funds, with such funds in at least 10 states facing insolvency in 2009, according to a policy group.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/08/jobless.claims/

So who else gets impacted by un-employment……health care industry..which is again one of the biggest employers in the country.

When a job disappears, so does the health care
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/07/america/07uninsured.php

No job no travel……….

Delta to Cut Flying, Trim Jobs on ‘Global’ Recession (Update2)
By Mary Jane Credeur and Mary Schlangenstein - Dec. 2
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWxLdFSHbBEs&refer=home

No jobs….no shoppping
Clothing sales slump in US hits shipments
By Jonathan Birchall in New York
Published: December 9 2008 19:12 | Last updated: December 9 2008 19:12

click here

–Less jobs less offices……..less office depots……….more job losses……….
Office Depot will close 112 stores
Wednesday December 10, 9:03 am ET
Office Depot to close 112 underperforming stores in 3 months in cost-saving move
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081210/office_depot_strategic_review.html

No job..no travel…no car buying…
Crisis on Dealers’ Row —>> more layoffs at car dealers.
Car dealers are fighting for survival, and maybe an upper hand, as business turns cold.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/autos/0811/gallery.dealer_row/index.html

Are you getting the picture ? and where will this ultimately lead into……………more people falling behind in their mortgage payment…….so instead of curing the problem, actually the problem just got intensified.

Record 10% of U.S. homeowners in arrears or foreclosure
California, with 19% of new foreclosures in the third quarter, is a big contributor to the worsening picture.
E. Scott Reckard
December 6, 2008
A record 10% of the nation’s mortgage-burdened homeowners fell behind on their loan payments or were in foreclosure during the third quarter, according to a survey released Friday by the Mortgage Bankers Assn., which said California and Florida were the biggest contributors to the worsening picture.
http://www.latimes.com/business/investing/la-fi-foreclose6-2008dec06,0,892360.story

–This is history in making so you’re we are not getting it as we should. But once the dust settle we will probably see Oct/Nov/Dec of 2008 as probably one of the worst months in economic hisotry.

And just when you think that US will probably consider trying to make USD less valuable…..you’re wrong……again my friend. Watch the date on this again.

Paulson urges China not to curb currency
By Geoff Dyer and Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Published: December 5 2008 14:30 | Last updated: December 5 2008 14:30
The US urged China on Friday not to “roll back” the appreciation of its currency that has taken place over the last two years to prevent an even sharper economic slowdown.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8b30672-c2d5-11dd-a5ae-000077b07658.html

My own analysis - What I make so far from all this is – that US is probably accepting to lower dollar against Euro and JPN -Yen but not against Chinese currency. Currency markets are very fast and very brutal, a country’s economy depends on these exchange rates, as long as a currency trades in an acceptable range a country can live with it. But if it moves too much central banks of that country immediately steps in to support the currency either pushing up or down I have seen this happening over and over again. China is notorious in keeping it’s currency value in a very tight range.

Question is - Why is that ? Why strong Usd against China and lower against Euro ?
Well, you see those holding debt like to hold debt as long as they see profit in it. Europe does not hold as many dollars as China does. And Chinese are very upset with US and if you know Chinese they are straight and to the point people. Did you read my previous post on future of USD ? person in that post was a Chinese.

…Here is what Chinese officials told US recently……….

China lectures US on economy
By Geoff Dyer in Beijing
Published: December 4 2008 04:32 | Last updated: December 4 2008 19:10
The US was lectured about its economic fragilities on Thursday as senior Chinese officials urged the administration to stabilise its economy, boost its savings rate and protect Chinese investments.
“We hope the US side will take the necessary measures to stabilise the economy and financial markets as well as guarantee the safety of China’s assets and investments in the US,” he said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/48ac15fc-c1bc-11dd-831e-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

…..However other currencies…..
Dollar Staggers as U.S. Unleashes Cash Flood, Deficit (Update2)
By Bo Nielsen and Daniel Kruger
Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) — The biggest foreign-exchange strategists and investors say the best may be over for the dollar after a four-month, 24 percent rally.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3f._bJvEaZU&refer=home

……….Ultimately it’s the Feds who are responsible for if the jobs get created here or they don’t. So let us look at what is going on in Feds area………let us first look at what has been done so far…..and if you think they are in control of this situation think again.

Fed paints dreary economic picture
Beige Book report shows weakness across all districts.
Last Updated: December 3, 2008: 6:00 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Economic conditions deteriorated further across the nation, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest snapshot, suggesting the
U.S. central bank may continue to lower interest rates in the near future.
“Overall economic activity weakened across all Federal Reserve districts,” the Fed said Wednesday in the December edition of its Beige Book, a report on
current economic conditions.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/03/news/economy/beige_book/index.htm?postversion=2008120318

………..And this is sure sign of panic……….

Bernanke Invocation of ‘War Powers’ Undermines Fed Bank Chiefs
“The Board has usurped authority,” said William Poole, former president of the St. Louis Fed and now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington.
“This dramatic change in policy direction has not been announced or even acknowledged.”
Bernanke must now try to bring the Federal Open Market Committee, which includes district presidents and Fed governors, along as he turns to more radical strategies, such as buying Treasuries to drive down long-term rates. A lack of consensus at next week’s FOMC meeting could result in muddled communication that confuses investors and undermines confidence.
A conference call last month showed how little say the central bank’s 12 regional presidents now have in some of the Fed’s biggest decisions. While the target is 1 percent, the effective federal funds rate averaged 0.33 percentage point in the past week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.g.iJbCJq3U&refer=home

….There are some tough times ahead of us and it’s important who you should be listening to…check this guy out……..his name is Peter Schiff and everything that you’re witnessing today he predicted this back in 2006 and then there is that other joker who is arguing with him…………who is right you make the decision play this video.

………Enjoy………
8/28/2006-Peter Schiff Predicts The US Economic Collapse With Unbelievable Accuracy

[views and opinions expressed here are mine and you need not agree with them. You should not make any financial decisions or any other decision based upon material you read on this website. For that you must contact an expert in the relevant area of your need.]